Showing posts with label Warren Buffett. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Warren Buffett. Show all posts

Buffett: A Life in the Stock Market

In some ways Warren Buffett resembles another plainspoken, outspoken,
ordinary-but-not-so-ordinary Midwesterner: President Harry
Truman. This is so even though Truman, after having been burned in a
zinc mining adventure, mostly confined his investing to Treasuries.
Many of the terms used to describe Truman describe Buffett
equally as well. Historian David McCullogh called Truman a man
“full of the zest of life.” Others talked about his “fundamental
small-town genuineness,” and his “appealing mixture of modesty
and confidence.”


Much like Buffett, Truman was known for his integrity and character,
and for being scrupulously ethical. These traits seem to have
served Buffett and Truman equally well.
Warren Edward Buffett was born in Omaha on August 30, 1930,
the son of Howard Buffett, a stockbroker and later a Republican
congressman. He was the second of three children, and the only son.

From his father Buffett learned the basic moral values, possibly
along with a deep respect for people who have money—his father’s
clients. From his mother, who was difficult and disapproving, he
may have developed a strong need to prove his worth, perhaps by
accumulating a large fortune.

In his youth Buffett displayed his intellectual gifts by memorizing
the populations of scores of U.S. cities. He displayed his commercial
instincts by selling chewing gum to passersby, setting up a lemonade
stand, selling cans of soda pop, even selling a tip sheet at the track.
He played Monopoly for hours.

When he was 11, he began working in his father’s brokerage firm,
marking prices on a blackboard. He bought his first stock when he
was 11: three shares of Cities Service Preferred, at $38 a share. The
price fell to $27, then bopped up to $40, at which point he sold. His
profit was $6, minus commissions. The stock soon rose to $200 a
share; perhaps Buffett had learned a lesson in being patient.

When his father was elected to Congress, he took his family to
Fredericksburg in Virginia. Warren, who all his life has been upset at
the prospect of change, was wretched. He was allowed to return to
Omaha and live with his grandfather, Ernest. Later, he worked in his
grandfather’s grocery store.

Buffett returned to Washington, D.C., as a teenager. He began delivering
the Washington Post and other newspapers, and in 1945, at
14, took his savings from his paper routes and bought 40 acres of Nebraska
farmland for $1,200 and leased them to a farmer. He also
made money by searching for lost golf balls on a golf course, and by
renting old, repaired pinball machines to barber shops.

In high school, he was something of a nerd; he wore the same

sneakers all the time, even in the dead of winter. But he had developed
such a reputation for stock-market wisdom that even his
teachers would ask him for advice. He graduated high school 14th
in his class of 374, and the yearbook described him this way: “Likes
math . . . a future stockbroker.”

He went on to the Wharton School of Finance, where, Warren reported,
he knew more than his professors. And, indeed, he was a
standout student. After a year, he transferred to the University of Nebraska
in Lincoln.

He himself dabbled in charting and technical analysis, but then,
while a senior at the University of Nebraska, read Benjamin Graham’s
The Intelligent Investor, advocating that investors buy good,
cheap companies and hang on—and the veils promptly fell from
his eyes.

At 19 Buffett applied to and was turned down by the Harvard Business
School, surely a blunder as egregious as the Boston Red Sox’s
selling Babe Ruth to the Yankees. He then moved to New York to
study with Ben Graham at the Columbia Business School. He was a
splendid student.

After getting his M.B.A., Buffett applied for a job with Graham’s
firm, offering to work for no pay, but was turned down. Buffett wasn’t
resentful: He joked that Graham had “made his customary calculation
of value to price and said no.”

At the same time that Howard Buffett lost his seat in Congress,
Warren received a phone call from Ben Graham. He offered Buffett a
job as an analyst with Graham–Newman in the Chanin Building on
43rd Street. There Buffett shared a room with Walter Schloss (Chapter
26), and later with Tom Knapp, who started the Tweedy, Browne
funds (Chapter 24).

Although he admired Graham, Buffett complained that he “had
this kind of shell around him.” Graham also didn’t really say yes to
Buffett’s proposed stock picks—or anyone else’s. He also discouraged
Buffett from visiting companies and talking to management. Either
a stock fit Graham’s mathematical matrix or it didn’t.
Buffett began courting Susan Thompson, and when she didn’t return
his affection, befriended her father. Susan was dating Milton
Brown, a Jew, and Susan’s parents—her father was a Protestant minister—
were disapproving. Buffett told Susan’s father that he was
Jewish enough for Susan and Christian enough for him. (“Jewish
enough for Susan” probably meant: He was unconventional and
iconoclastic.) Eventually Susan gave in to her father, and began dating
Buffett; they married in 1952.


In 1956 Graham retired to California, and Buffett—now worth
$140,000 thanks to shrewd investing—returned to Omaha.
There, Buffett began working in his father’s business. The first
stock he sold: GEICO. Then he started his own investment partnership.
He persuaded a group of investors to hand over $25,000
each; Buffett contributed $100, and he was on his way. His goal: to
beat the Dow Jones Industrial Average by an average of 10 percent
a year.

When he ended the partnership in 1969, because he couldn’t find
cheap stocks to buy, his investments had compounded at 29.5 percent
a year versus the Dow’s mere 7.4 percent a year. Ending the
partnership was a good call. The Dow plunged in 1973 and 1974.
Buffett suggested that his ex-partners invest money with his
friend Bill Ruane in a new mutual fund called Sequoia. (See Chapter
21.)

In 1962, Buffett had begun buying cheap shares of a textile mill in
New Bedford, Massachusetts, called Berkshire Hathaway. He began
buying it at less than $8 a share, then took it over completely in 1964,
when its book value was $19.46.
He had promised to hold onto the textile mill, but eventually
had to give it up because the business was eroding thanks to foreign
competition.

He then went into insurance, a wise decision because insurance

companies give their owners free money from customers to invest
for a time (until claims must be paid)—and Buffett knew how to invest
spare money.

When the markets crashed in 1973–1974, Buffett went in with a
wheelbarrow and scooped up bargains.
His wife, Susan, apparently didn’t enjoy the good, quiet life in Omaha
as much as Buffett did, and moved to San Francisco, helping him
find another housemate, Astrid Menks, a Latvian-born waitress at a
local café. Mrs. Buffett nonetheless joins him on most of his public
appearances, gets along famously with Ms. Menks, and will inherit
all his stock should he predecease her.

They have three children: Howard, Susan, and Peter.
Buffett still lives on Farnam Street in the same big, gray house he
purchased 40 years ago for $31,500. He drives his own car, does his
own taxes.
The Buffett Foundation, which he set up in the mid-1960s, helps
family-planning clinics.

His most notable purchases include the Washington Post, GEICO,
Coca-Cola, Gillette, American Express, and General Re. He
prefers buying companies outright to buying partial shares, and
he now owns a well-diversified portfolio of companies. (See Appendix
2.)

In the early 1990s, perhaps mistakenly, Buffett and Munger got involved
in the Salomon scandal over its hogging of Treasury bonds,
and Buffett took over as chairman. He tried to curtail the greediness
of Salomon bond traders, and certainly managed to rescue the company
from bankruptcy, but in retrospect it seems to have been a nowin
situation—a dragon that Buffett might have been better off
avoiding rather than trying to slay.

His annual reports are reader friendly, literate, learned, and sometimes
funny (although he mistakenly believes that St. Augustine’s
plea, “Give me chastity, but not now,” is apocryphal).
Berkshire does things differently. Both Buffett and Munger receive
only $100,000 a year in salaries. The shares were split into A and B
varieties in 1996 only to fend off sharpies, who were about to sell
small units of Berkshire for less than the $48,000 a share it was then
selling for. (Buffett never split the stock, despite its lofty price, because
he believes that low prices lead to a high turnover, attract investors
who are short-term oriented, and cause stock prices to
diverge from their intrinsic value.)

The fun-filled annual meetings, Woodstock for Capitalists, lure
thousands of contented shareholders, and every year more and more

people flock there to enjoy the Warren and Charlie Show. Celebrities
turn up, too, including Michael Eisner of Disney.
Apparently the man designated to succeed Buffett when he leaves
is Louis Simpson, GEICO’s chairman. (See Chapter 23.)
In 2001 Buffett went on what was, for him, a buying spree, purchasing
shares of such companies as H&R Block, GPU, and Johns
Manville, the company riddled with asbestos problems. He joined
with other very wealthy people in publicly opposing legislation to
eliminate the estate tax, arguing that it is simply unfair for one child
to be born with far more financial resources than another. And he
began issuing warnings that the stock market was overvalued. He is
only 70 years old as of this writing, and one can confidently expect
that he will be entertaining and enlightening us many more times
during this decade, and yes, even getting his picture in the papers.
Read More : Buffett: A Life in the Stock Market

Buffettology or Mythology?

People with an ax to grind may be dubious of Buffett’s accomplishments,
and one ax they typically are seeking to have ground is their
adherence to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the notion that stocks
are always reasonably priced because all information about all companies
is immediately dispersed to the general populace, and the
general populace is composed of equally intelligent, rational individuals.
One person who harbors doubts about Buffett’s abilities is

Larry E. Swedroe, an advocate of index funds and the author of
What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You to Know (New York: St. Martin’s
Press, 2001).

He professes himself to be an “agnostic” regarding Buffett.
Certainly Buffett’s long-term record is impressive, Swedroe admits,
and it may have three causes:
1. He may be a genius.
2. He may have been just lucky.
3. He may have benefited specially from his being an active participant
in companies he buys into, such as Coca-Cola and
Gillette. “He often takes an influential management role, including
a seat on the board of directors, in a company in which he
invests.” So it may be his contribution to the companies in
which he invests that explains his record.
(One might add: Another explanation someone might advance is
that Berkshire has used the float from its insurance company premiums
to compound its returns—at little or no cost. This, observes analyst
Braverman, is akin to Buffett’s having used leverage, or
borrowing money.)

Swedroe continues: From 1990 to February 29, 2000, Berkshire
gained 407 percent. But that was only 0.2 percent per year
more than the S&P 500. Swedroe then does some data mining,
and, he admits, searches specifically for periods of time when
Berkshire Hathaway under-performed. From June 19, 1998, its alltime
high, to February 29, 2000, Berkshire fell 46 percent. The S&P
500 rose 24 percent, not including dividends. From 1996 through
1999, Berkshire rose by 75 percent. But the S&P 500 climbed by
155 percent.

The lesson from Buffett’s record, Swedroe concludes, is that
“choosing active managers, even perhaps the greatest one of all, is
no guarantee of better results.” Whereas diversifying among index
funds, he argues, is.

The obvious answer to Swedroe is that the 1990s were a great time
for the S&P 500 Index because technology stocks ruled the roost, especially
in the last few years of the decade, and the S&P 500 was
dominated by its tech stocks. For Berkshire to have beaten the index
by even a small amount over that period of time is impressive, considering
Buffett’s aversion to technology stocks. And the fact that
Berkshire endured some mediocre years and some poor years is not
surprising; the S&P 500 has suffered dry spells as well. In any case,
value stocks are notorious for trailing behind the general market

during long time periods, which might explain why value investors
wind up being so generously rewarded.
Read More : Buffettology or Mythology?

What Investors Can Learn from Warren Buffett?

Berkshire Hathaway’s stock has risen nearly 27 percent a year for
the past 36 years. For its consistency and profitability, this company,
managed by Warren E. Buffett of Omaha, has been amazing.
If you asked Buffett how you, as an individual investor, could go
about imitating his spectacularly successful investment strategy, his
answer would be: buy shares of Berkshire Hathaway. He happens to
be an unusually sensible person, and that is clearly the best answer.
But if you buy or intend to buy other stocks on your own, either
one-at-a-time or through a managed mutual fund, there is much that
you can learn by studying Buffett’s tactics.

Why not just do the obvious and put all your money into Berkshire
Hathaway stock? One reason: It’s mainly an insurance holding company
Buffett is an authority on insurance. Because of this, the
stock has virtually no exposure to many areas of the stock market,
such as technology and health care. A second reason: Berkshire has
become so enormous that its future performance is handicapped,
much like the odds-on favorite in a horse race being forced to carry
extra weights.

In short, you might do better on your own. First, because you have
a smaller, more nimble portfolio. And, second, because you might
shoot out the lights by overweighting stocks in whatever field you’re
particularly knowledgeable about—health care, technology, banking,
whatever. Buffett refers to this as staying within your “circle of
competence.” (There’s nothing wrong, of course, with your also buying
Berkshire stock. I have. The Sequoia Fund, run by friends of Buffett’s,
has one-third of its assets in Berkshire.)

While the average investor can learn a thing or two from the master,
he or she simply cannot duplicate Buffett’s future or past investment
performance. One obvious reason: Buffett has the money to
buy entire companies outright, not just a small piece of a company.
He also buys preferred stocks, engages in arbitrage (when two companies
are merging, Buffett may buy the shares of one, sell the
shares of the other), and buys bonds and precious metals. He’s also
on the board of directors of a few companies Berkshire has invested
in. Perhaps the most difficult thing for individuals to duplicate is
Buffett’s small army of sophisticated investors around the country
who fall all over themselves to provide him with “scuttlebutt” about
any company he’s thinking of buying. Also, Buffett has the word out
to family-owned businesses: “I’ll buy your company and let you keep
running it” (another thing individuals can’t duplicate).

Let’s not forget, too, that Buffett also happens to be extraordinarily
bright, a whiz at math, and to have spent his life almost monomaniacally
studying businesses and balance sheets. What’s more, he
has learned from some of the most original and audacious investment
minds of our time, most notably Benjamin Graham.
Still, while it’s true that trying to emulate Pete Sampras or the
Williams sisters does not guarantee that you will wind up in Wimbledon,
you could very likely benefit from any of the pointers they
might give—or from studying what it is they do to win tennis
matches.

Buffett has often said that it’s easy to emulate what he does, and
that what he does is very straightforward. He buys wonderful businesses
run by capable, shareholder-friendly people, especially when
these businesses are in temporary trouble and the price is right. And
then he just hangs on.

There is, in fact, a whole library of books out there about Buffett
and his investment strategies. There are Berkshire web sites, Internet
discussion groups, and annual meetings that are beginning to resemble
revival meetings. There is also a Buffett “workbook” that
helps people invest like Warren Buffett. It even includes quizzes.
This book isn’t written for the Chartered Financial Analyst or the
sophisticated investor (readers familiar with Graham and Dodd’s Security
Analysis). It is for ordinary investors who know that they
could do a lot better if they knew a little more. And the truth is,
much of Buffett’s investment strategy is perfectly suited for the
everyday investor. His advice, which he has been generous in sharing,
is simple and almost surefire.

Buffett buys only what he considers to be almost sure things—
stocks of companies so powerful, so unassailable, that they will still
dominate their industries ten years hence. He confines his choices to
stocks in industries that he is thoroughly familiar with. He will seek
out every last bit of information he can get, whether it’s a company’s
return on equity or the fact that the CEO is a miser who takes after
Ebenezer Scrooge himself. He scrutinizes his occasional mistakes,
quickly undoes them, and tries to learn lessons from the experience.
While he is loyal to the management and employees of companies he
buys, he is first and foremost loyal to his investors. To Warren Buffett,
the foulest four-letter word is: r-i-s-k.

Beyond that, he avoids making the mistakes ordinary investors
make: buying the most glamorous stocks when they’re at the peak of
their popularity; selling whatever temporarily falls out of favor and
thus following the crowd (in or out the door); attempting to demonstrate
versatility by buying all manner of stocks in different industries;
being seduced by exciting stories with no solid numbers to
back them up; and tenaciously holding onto his losers while shortsightedly
nailing down the profits on his winners by selling.

In short, as Buffett has modestly confessed, the essential reason
for his success is that he has invested very sensibly and very rationally.
Another way of putting it: Buffet invests as if his life depended on it.
A word of warning: Not all of Buffett’s strategies should necessarily
be imitated by the general investing public, in particular Buffett’s
penchant for buying only a relatively few stocks. A concentrated
portfolio, in lesser hands, can be a time bomb.

There are some things that geniuses can (and should) do that
lesser mortals should be wary of; there’s a law for the lion and a law
for the lamb. Ted Williams, the great baseball slugger, never tried to
bunt his way onto first base, even during the days of the “Williams
Shift,” when players on the opposing team moved far over to the
right side of the field to catch balls that Williams normally whacked
down that way. He wasn’t being paid to bunt toward third base and
wind up with a mere single, much the way Warren Buffett isn’t expected
to do just okay. But you and I, not being quite in the same
class as those two, should be perfectly content with getting on base
consistently using such unimpressive techniques as bunt singles.
No doubt, overdiversification—owning a truckload of different se-
curities—is something that gifted investors should steer clear of. But
underdiversification, owning just a few securities, is something that
ungifted investors (in whose ranks I happily serve) should also avoid
like the plague.

In 1996 there appeared a short, charming book with a cute title:
Invest Like Warren Buffett, Live Like Jimmy Buffett: A Money
Manual for Those Who Haven’t Won the Lottery (Secaucus, NJ:
Carol Publishing Group, 1996). The author is a Certified Financial
Planner, Luki Vail.
The text talks about the blessings of an investor’s owning a diversified
portfolio, not a concentrated portfolio. Writes the author, “Diversification
of your investment dollars along with appropriate time
strategies are your best tactics to protect you against such things as
stock market crashes.” (“Time strategies” means suiting your portfolio
to your needs. If you think you’ll need your money in fewer than
five years, go easy on stocks.)

Why buy mutual funds? “Here is your chance to own stocks in 50
to 75 companies.”
“Generally, stay away from individual stocks until you have about
$250,000 to invest; then you can have a well-diversified portfolio, like
your own personal mutual fund. That way when a stock takes a nose
dive on you, it will only have a small position in a very large portfolio,
and you will take only a small loss, which could possibly be offset
by the gain of some other stock.”

In brief, she is recommending that readers of her book not swing
for the seats but bunt for singles. That’s no doubt sensible counsel
for her readers, but it is not the Warren Buffett way.
I might offer a compromise suggestion: The ordinary investor, the
lesser investor, might have a core portfolio of large-company index
funds composing 50 percent or more of the entire stock portfolio.
(Buffett has recommended that tactic for most investors.) And outside
the core portfolio, the lesser investor might swing for the seats
by imitating the strategy of the man generally acknowledged to be
the greatest investor of our time.
Warren Boroson
Glen Rock, N.J.
Read More : What Investors Can Learn from Warren Buffett?