Showing posts with label Forex Market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forex Market. Show all posts

Types of Transaction In Forex Market

The participants in the foreign exchange markets effect transactions for various purposes,
principally arsing from the need to cover or hedge other financial or commercial operations,
although in practice it is sometimes difficult to draw a clear line between these categories. For
example, covering and hedging operations may well contain elements of speculation. Whatever
the nature of the transaction, they are initiated by the banks’ clients or by banks themselves
for their own account.

The following are examples of those types of transaction, undertaken by all categories of
market participants, which are commonplace in the foreign exchange market today.

Commercial Transactions
For commercial transactions, manufacturing companies who buy in raw materials from abroad
and export finished products undertake both purchases and sales of foreign exchange, always
dependent upon the companies’ domicile and the currency used for invoicing.

Importers of goods, whether acting as principles or intermediaries, will undertake purchases
of foreign currency. Contractors involved in overseas projects will be market participants
as both buyers and sellers of foreign currency. Also, international insurance, shipping, air
transport and travel companies have need of frequent involvement in the market, as do any
other individuals or companies offering services overseas.

Funding
Banks and multinational corporations require specific wholesale funding for their commercial
loan or other foreign investment portfolios, alongside day-to-day funding requirements of their
net currency cash flows.

Hedging
The hedging of any open currency exposure is frequently better handled through off-balancesheet
products, such as currency options, which ultimately will have an effect on the foreign
exchange market. Also, companies involved in direct commercial investment overseas,
the purchase and maintenance of plant and materials, or those financing operations of foreign
based subsidiaries, will be frequent participants in the market, as will property companies
or individuals involved in the purchase and sale of property overseas. They may seek
foreign currency financing or may convert local currency funding via the foreign exchange
market.


Portfolio Investment
Added to this group are banks and other entities involved in portfolio investment overseas,
or dealing in foreign securities, who will, for position establishment and profit realization
purposes, be both buyers and sellers of foreign currencies.

Personal
On the personal transaction front, tourists, immigrants and emigrants making outward and
inward remittances in foreign currency make up the bulk of the volume, if not the value, of
retail foreign exchange business transacted in the market. Royalties, commissions, patents and
copyrights from abroad will also be transacted in the market.
Source: A Foreign Exchange Primer

The Inherent Instability in the Forex Market

Swings in currency value always seem obvious in hindsight, but
those caught up in them almost never know exactly when, or how
much, a currency will move. That is because the “X factor”—the
element of the unexpected that is present in all markets—is far
more potent in the foreign exchange market.

Clive Crook, in the Economist (May 2, 2003), explains why. It
is conventional wisdom that increased trade in goods and services
is beneficial because it offers consumers more choices. Americans,
for example, can match their tastes and preferences to a wide variety
of automobiles, mostly because of open trade. The Forex market
is good for the same reason—it offers people more choices.

They can also invest in currencies from around the world, each
with different strengths and weaknesses. But, as Crook darkly
notes, the increase in the number of choices also increases the
chances that the investor will make a bad investment. And whereas
most people can tell a well-made car from one of poor quality, currencies
are far more difficult to understand and judge.

For one thing, investors are less able to make an intelligent
decision about something in a foreign business culture than
about something that is near and familiar. Hence, investing in
foreign capital raises the odds that investors will make lesssound
selections.

This would not be as serious if investors were stung only when
markets went down and investments went sour. Yet dramatic currency
swings are rarely so kind. They can quickly spill into surrounding
financial sectors and trigger a series of falling dominoes
of failed institutions—companies, funds, banks, central banks,
and governments. Individuals, who may have no interest in or

understanding of the foreign exchange market, can ultimately be
just as devastated as the investors.

Crook writes about why investor ignorance of the forces
behind currency movement compounds the likelihood of a destabilizing
crash. “Investors tend to deal with uncertainty in ways that
aggravate the problem. If information about underlying value is
absent or obscure, they are likely to become preoccupied with the
views of other investors.”

This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, observes Crook, because one
investor can learn something important that is spread quickly to
the rest of the investing community. But “now and then, it degenerates
into crowd hysteria.”

Several times in history, investors have acted more like sheep
than investors who respect reality, and not just in the Forex markets.
The stock bubble of the late 1990s is a good example, when
seasoned market watchers such as Warren Buffet withdrew in disgust
from the markets because the valuations were so out of line
with earnings.

Because it is difficult for investors to understand what conditions
are like in another part of the world, the global currency market
is therefore prone to these wild, speculative swings.

Another factor, however, makes the currency markets even
more susceptible to swings—leverage. Through leverage, as you
have read, an investor with modest assets can draw on enormous
sums to invest in the foreign currency market, thus making an
oversized impact. I have strongly recommended that the average
investor avoid this temptation. Through leverage, it may be possible
to win big, but it is also possible to lose even bigger.

These losses wipe out the individual investor, but they also
affect the various lenders who loaned the investor the money in the
first place, who often didn’t fully understand the risk they were

taking on. Thus, financial institutions can suddenly melt away after
the disastrous trades of one dealer.
Read More: The Inherent Instability in the Forex Market

SPOT AND FORWARD MARKET

Today, foreign exchange is an integral part of our daily lives. Without foreign exchange,
international tradewould not be possible. For example, a Swisswatchmaker will incur expenses
in Swiss francs. When the company wants to sell the watches, they want to receive Swiss francs
to meet those expenses. However, if they sell to an English merchant, the English company will
want to pay in sterling, the home currency. In between, a transaction has to occur that converts
one currency into the other. That transaction is undertaken in the foreign exchange market.

However, foreign exchange does not only involve trade. Trade, today, is only a small part of
the foreign exchange market; movements of international capital seeking the most profitable
home for the shortest term dominates.

The main participants in the foreign exchange market are:

  • commercial banks
  • commercial organizations
  • brokers
  • International Monetary Market (IMM)
  • speculators
  • central banks
  • funds
  • money managers
  • investors.

Most participants transact in foreign currency, not only for immediate delivery but also for
settlement at specific times in the future. By using the forward markets, the participant can
A spot transaction is where delivery of the currencies is two business days from the
trade date (except the Canadian dollar, which is one day).

A forward transaction is any transaction that settles on a date beyond spot.

determine today the currency equivalent of future foreign currency flows by transferring the
risk of currency fluctuations (hedging or covering foreign currency exposure). The market
participants on the other side of any trade must either have exactly opposite hedging needs or
be willing to take a speculative position. The most common method used by participants when
transacting in either spot or forward foreign currency is to deal directly with a bank, although
Internet trading is currently making impressive inroads.

These banks usually have large foreign exchange sales and trading departments that not
only handle the requests from their clients but also take positions to make trading profits and
balance foreign currency positions arising from other bank business. Typical transactions in
the bank market range from $1 million to $500 million, although banks will handle smaller
amounts as requested by their clients at slightly less favourable terms.
Source: A Foreign Exchange Primer

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS WRONG

Many have argued that the market is always wrong. Indeed,
the market must by definition always be wrong because its

participants are emotional, rather than logical, creatures. A natural
conclusion emerges: The market can never rest at its objective,
logical level. As emotional beings, we are perhaps incapable
of determining such an objective, logical level anyway, even if we
delude ourselves to the contrary.

When the market does rest, it is at an emotionally comfortable
level and is therefore inherently unstable. I would argue that
only a person with a highly trained mind who has spent many
years studying meditation techniques could maintain a reasonable
mood consistently for any period of time. A market made
up of thousands of participants has no chance.

Price action is, to use a cliche, the bottom line. It does not matter
one iota if you manage to get the economics right while the
market goes in the opposite direction. This difference between
what the market “should” do and what it does do is seen all the time. Why? Simply
because of the age-old laws of supply and demand—the actual gross buying versus
the actual gross selling in the market as opposed to theories on the potential
movement in the broad economy. (I have used the term gross because in this age
of huge individual-entity market participants, it is sometimes the case that, although there are more
buyers than sellers, the market goes down because the sellers’ positions were bigger.)
The economics of a country are but one influence on a
market—regardless of whether we are looking at equities, bonds,
or currency markets. Other factors that come into play are the
market’s performance relative to other economies and markets
and even the global political environment. Where all these
factors lead, however, is to one elegant place: the mind of the
market participant. The final computation of all these factors

is then filtered through the enigma of that human condition, emotion.

The way market participants use emotion to filter information
varies from day to day, depending on all sorts of factors—from
the weather to whatever market position is already in place.
Participants who are long a market will largely filter out any
bearish news developments. Against this, participants who are
short a market will focus almost completely on bearish news. Yet
all information is absorbed. The net combined effect of all the
fundamental forces and all the emotional filters is the collective
view of a market—that is, its current price. Is it any wonder that
prices are almost always unstable? This innate instability of markets
is, in effect, the “emotion” of the marketplace.

Perhaps a slightly more contentious point that I would also
offer for consideration is the differing emotional structures preexisting
in different markets. As traders, we are increasingly
trading globally. A phenomenon I have observed among market
participants is actually nationality based and even relates to
some sectors of the markets’ political beliefs as well. It is not
uncommon, for instance, for traders in the United Kingdom to
be slightly more negative in their attitude toward their own
economy and the release of data on their economy than perhaps
U.S. traders would be about similar data outcomes regarding
the U.S. economy. There seems to be a natural pessimism about
U.K. trading behavior, compared to a slight state of enthusiasm
in U.S. trading. It has been observed that, generally speaking,
different cultures have varying psychological profiles. In these
two examples, neither is realistic, but both present opportunity.

If we understand that U.K. trading will tend to overreact to negative
data and perhaps slightly depreciate positive data, then we
can look to take advantage of the temporary price overshoots
thereby created. This principle works similarly, and in reverse,
in the U.S. markets.


Financial markets are very much a product of laissez-faire
economic thought. It is only natural that any sample of market
traders would then tend to discover that on the political spectrum
the bell curve is skewed slightly to the right. This explains, in
addition to the more obvious point, why markets tend to dislike
left-leaning governments around the world and embrace governments
that are more conservative. Again, this creates opportunity.

As a warrior trader, you must always be independent in
thought when approaching the market. Observing a market
overreact to good news in a conservative government economic
environment relative to the treatment of good economic data in
a less than conservative environment can be a factor in increasing
short- to medium-term trading success. It is all emotional,
even on levels people are not always aware of.

How can you monitor and keep up with this combined unstable
emotional force? You cannot gauge a market precisely; however,
you can get an effective handle on its current direction and
whether it is bullish or bearish. The tool for achieving some
awareness of the overall emotion of a market is technical analysis.

The other reasonably effective method I am aware of for
achieving this is to simply watch trading screens for a few hours
after a piece of economic data has been released. This allows you
to see whether the market has moved in the direction suggested
by the data or not, and to what degree. (I suggest a few hours
because immediate volatility after an economic release can be
like fool’s gold, and it is a lure that can entice many.) A shortterm
trading strategy can be centered around the price at which
the market sat just prior to the data release. If the market moves
in response to the data, and the price movement is valid, then it
should not retrace beyond that immediately prior to the release
price level. If it does, then there is probably an even bigger trading
opportunity in the direction opposite that which the data
release indicated.
Read More: THE MARKET IS ALWAYS WRONG

Derivatives and the Forex Market

You may decide that one or two of the instruments just described
are worth using. You also should know how other players use these
instruments and how that plays out in the Forex market.

In late November 2001, I noticed that the yen had been steadily
weakening against the U.S. dollar for the entire month. On the
third Friday of the month, I was surprised to see the yen move in a
strange fashion. It would start gaining value rapidly, and just as it
appeared to break out into a higher trading value, it would suddenly
fall back to lower levels.

This happened four or five times in late New York trading
alone. On the charts, it looked like the yen would rise and then hit
an electric fence. I had never seen anything like it. What was going
on? I then heard a rumor that explained this unique event. It turned
out that a Japanese importer had taken out a large put option to

protect his revenue in U.S. dollars. To ensure that this option didn’t
expire worthless, he had enlisted a few large banks to protect his
position. Whenever the yen weakened to the point of threatening
his position, the banks would start selling dollars, thereby causing
the yen to strengthen.

This is a pretty extreme example, but traders must understand
how their trading tools interact with others. There is no doubt that the
increased popularity and sophistication of financial derivatives has
complicated trading, especially in price discovery. Many inexperienced
Forex traders concentrate on the spot vehicle because of its relative
simplicity, but this focus handicaps their ability to trade effectively.

Why? Spot is traded “over the counter” (OTC), meaning outside
an organized exchange. No one can really keep track of it,
because many of the trades are occurring out of sight, in different
locations, and so on.

On an exchange, however, important information can be gleaned
from the ebb and flow of derivative trading and posted for investors
to see. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, for example, reports outstanding
positions for options. This indicates what the market
thinks will happen in the future. In the fragmented, decentralized
Forex spot market, however, these kinds of indicators do not exist.

A good trader knows that it’s not just his investment that’s
important, but where he chooses to make his investment.
Read More : Derivatives and the Forex Market

What Is the Forex Market?

The foreign exchange market — most often called the forex market, or simply the FX market — is the most traded financial market in the world. We like to think of the forex market as the “Big Kahuna” of financial markets. The forex market is the crossroads for international capital, the intersection through which global commercial and investment flows have to move.

International trade flows, such as when a Swiss electronics company purchases Japanese-made components, were the original basis for the development of the forex markets.

Today, however, global financial and investment flows dominate trade as the primary non-speculative source of forex market volume. Whether it’s an Australian pension fund investing in U.S. Treasury bonds, or a British insurer allocating assets to the Japanese equity market, or a German conglomerate purchasing a Canadian manufacturing facility, each cross-border transaction passes through the forex market at some stage.

More than anything else, the forex market is a trader’s market. It’s a market that’s open around the clock six days a week, enabling traders to act on news and events as they happen. It’s a market where half-billion-dollar trades can be executed in a matter of seconds and may not even move prices noticeably. Try buying or selling a half billion of anything in another market and see how prices react.

The foreign exchange market — most often called the forex market, or simply the FX market — is the most traded financial market in the world. We like to think of the forex market as the “Big Kahuna” of financial markets. The forex market is the crossroads for international capital, the intersection through which global commercial and investment flows have to move.

International trade flows, such as when a Swiss electronics company purchases Japanese-made components, were the original basis for the development of the forex markets. Today, however, global financial and investment flows dominate trade as the primary non-speculative source of forex market volume. Whether it’s an Australian pension fund investing in U.S. Treasury bonds, or a British insurer allocating assets to the
Japanese equity market, or a German conglomerate purchasing a Canadian manufacturing facility, each cross-border transaction passes through the forex market at some stage.

More than anything else, the forex market is a trader’s market. It’s a market that’s open around the clock six days a week, enabling traders to act on news and events as they happen. It’s a market where half-billion-dollar trades can be executed in a matter of seconds and may not even move prices noticeably. Try buying or selling a half billion of anything in another market and see how prices react.

From a trading perspective, liquidity is a critical consideration because it determines how quickly prices move between trades and over time. A highly liquid market like forex can see large trading volumes transacted with relatively minor price changes. An illiquid, or thin, market tends to see prices move more rapidly on relatively lower trading volumes. A market that only trades during certain hours (futures contracts, for example) also represents a less liquid, thinner market.

Around the World
in a Trading Day
The forex market is open and active 24 hours a day from the start of business hours on Monday morning in the Asia-Pacific time zone straight through to the Friday close of business hours in New York. At any given moment, depending on the time zone, dozens of global financial centers — such as Sydney, Tokyo, or London — are open, and currency trading desks in those financial centers are active in the market.

Currency trading doesn’t even stop for holidays when other financial markets, like stocks or futures exchanges, may be closed. Even though it’s a holiday in Japan, for example, Sydney, Singapore, and Hong Kong may still be open. It might be the Fourth of July in the United States, but if it’s a business day, Tokyo, London, Toronto, and other financial centers will still be trading currencies. About the only holiday in common
around the world is New Year’s Day, and even that depends on what day of the week it falls on.

The opening of the trading week
There is no officially designated starting time to the trading day or week, but for all intents the market action kicks off when Wellington, New Zealand, the first financial center west of the international dateline, opens on Monday morning local time. Depending on whether daylight saving time is in effect in your own time zone, it roughly corresponds to early Sunday afternoon in North America, Sunday evening in Europe, and very early Monday morning in Asia.

The Sunday open represents the starting point where currency markets resume trading after the Friday close of trading in North America (5 p.m. Eastern time). This is the first chance for the forex market to react to news and events that may have happened over the weekend. Prices may have closed New York trading at one level, but depending on the circumstances, they may start trading at different levels at the Sunday open.

Trading in the Asia-Pacific session
Currency trading volumes in the Asia-Pacific session account for about 21 percent of total daily global volume, according to a 2004 survey. The principal financial trading centers are Wellington, New Zealand; Sydney, Australia; Tokyo, Japan; Hong Kong; and Singapore. In terms of the most actively traded currency pairs, that means news and data reports from New Zealand, Australia, and Japan are going to be hitting the
market during this session.

Because of the size of the Japanese market and the importance of Japanese data to the market, much of the action during the Asia-Pacific session is focused on the Japanese yen currency pairs , such as USD/JPY – forexspeak for the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen -- and the JPY crosses, like EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY. Of course, Japanese financial institutions are also most active during this session, so you can frequently get a sense of what the Japanese market is doing based on price movements.

For individual traders, overall liquidity in the major currency pairs is more than sufficient, with generally orderly price movements. In some less liquid, non-regional currencies, like GBP/USD or USD/CAD, price movements may be more erratic or nonexistent, depending on the environment.

Trading in the European/London session
About midway through the Asian trading day, European financial  centers begin to open up and the market gets into its full swing. European financial centers and London account for over 50 percent of total daily global trading volume, with London alone accounting for about one-third of total daily global volume, according to the 2004 survey.

The European session overlaps with half of the Asian trading day and half of the North American trading session, which means that market interest and liquidity is at its absolute peak during this session. News and data events from the Eurozone (and individual countries like Germany and France), Switzerland, and the
United Kingdom are typically released in the early-morning hours of the European session. As a result, some of the biggest moves and most active trading takes place in the European currencies (EUR, GBP, and CHF) and the euro crosscurrency pairs (EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP).

Asian trading centers begin to wind down in the late-morning hours of the European session, and North American financial centers come in a few hours later, around 7 a.m. ET.

Trading in the North American session
Because of the overlap between North American and European trading sessions, the trading volumes are much more significant. Some of the biggest and most meaningful directional price movements take place during this crossover period. On its own, however, the North American trading session accounts for roughly the same share of global trading volume as the Asia-Pacific market, or about 22 percent of global daily trading volume.

The North American morning is when key U.S. economic data is released and the forex market makes many of its most significant decisions on the value of the U.S. dollar. Most U.S. data reports are released at 8:30 a.m. ET, with others coming out later (between 9 and 10 a.m. ET). Canadian data reports are also released in the morning, usually between 7 and 9 a.m. ET. There are also a few U.S. economic reports that variously
come out at noon or 2 p.m. ET, livening up the New York afternoon market. London and the European financial centers begin to wind down their daily trading operations around noon eastern time (ET) each day. The London, or European close, as it’s known, can frequently generate volatile flurries of activity.

On most days, market liquidity and interest fall off significantly in the New York afternoon, which can make for challenging trading conditions. On quiet days, the generally lower market interest typically leads to stagnating price action. On more active days, where prices may have moved more significantly, the lower liquidity can spark additional outsized price movements, as fewer traders scramble to get similarly fewer
prices and liquidity. Just as with the London close, there’s never a set way in which a New York afternoon market move plays out, so traders just need to be aware that lower liquidity conditions tend to prevail, and adapt accordingly.
Source: Currency Trading For Dummies

Trends That Rocked the Forex World

The Rise and Fall of the Modern Gold Standard
The horror and destruction of two world wars filled the minds of
the men who gathered in 1944 in Bretton Woods, Vt. They were
determined to set the world right again and lay the foundation for
a new international economic order. The core of this system was
the strict pegging of all western currencies—British pounds,
French francs, German marks—to the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar
in turn was based on a set amount of gold—hence, the modern
gold standard.

The Bretton Woods system, however, was fated to ultimately
collapse. The reason became starkly clear over time. Banks needed
the U.S. dollar, which was pegged to gold, to establish security in
their reserve banks. The central banks of Europe could not circulate
more money in their own economies if that meant overrunning
the number of dollars they held. This system depended, then, on
the U.S. running dollar deficits with the rest of the world, and the
number of dollars in circulation soon exceeded the amount of gold
backing them up.

With more and more dollars in circulation, it became clear that
the U.S.’s pledge to back up its paper money in gold was more and
more hollow. By the early 1960s, an ounce of gold could be
exchanged for $40 in London, even though the price in the U.S.
was $35. This difference showed that investors knew the dollar
was overvalued and that time was running out.

Investors were not the only ones to recognize the fundamental
imbalance of the Bretton Woods system. American economist
Robert Trifflin had first identified the problem in 1960—for which
he has since been honored by having it named “Trifflin’s Dilemma.”

There was a solution to Trifflin’s Dilemma for the U.S.—reduce
the number of dollars in circulation by cutting the deficit and raise
interest rates to attract dollars back into the country. Both these
tactics, however, would drag the U.S. economy into recession, a
prospect new President John F. Kennedy found intolerable.

As the politicians dithered, the problem grew worse. Other
nations, especially France, exchanged dollars for gold, building up
their reserves. Throughout the 1960s and sitting atop a pile of
gold, France called for a return to the gold standard, rather than
dependence on the dollar. This tactic was partly inspired by French
resentment of American dominance in Europe. By 1968, French
officials openly attacked the notion that an ounce of gold was still worth $35.

This caused ripples of unease in markets. In the late 1960s, the
U.S. had flooded the world markets with dollars printed to pay for
the Vietnam War. Other nations accused the U.S. of exporting
inflation, and they chafed at a system that kept everyone in a financial
straitjacket except the U.S.

The cracks in the Bretton Woods system could no longer be
ignored. Dollars were flowing in Germany, bolstering the mark.
The German Central Bank, determined to protect the German
export-drive economy, sold marks to keep the currency’s value
down. But market forces were stronger than the bank. Eventually it
stopped trying, and the mark was allowed to gain value. The Dutch
followed and allowed their currency to also appreciate.

In August 1971, President Nixon acknowledged that the
Bretton Woods system was finished. He announced that the
dollar could no longer be exchanged for gold. The “gold
window” was closed.

A last-ditch effort was made to save the system when the major
powers met in December 1971 in Washington, D.C. to devalue the
U.S. dollar against gold and other major currencies. The resulting
agreement, called the Smithsonian agreement, was not much of an
improvement, despite President Nixon’s description of it as the
“greatest monetary agreement in the history of the world.” Gold
was reset at $38 an ounce, and currencies were allowed to fluctuate
2.25 percent, rather than just the 1 percent allowed by Bretton
Woods. It was still not enough. The rates proved to be unsustainable.

Within a few months, several countries decided to abandon
fixed exchange rates and let their currencies float.
However, the decision to devalue the dollar broke the U.S.’s
long-standing insistence that $35 would always be worth an ounce
of gold. This effectively ended any pretense of a gold standard. In
February 1973, the dollar fell 10 percent. The nations of western
Europe linked their currencies, allowing a 2.5 percent fluctuation
rate, in a system called the snake. They also linked their currencies
to the dollar, permitting a 4.5 percent fluctuation rate, in a system
called the tunnel.

In hindsight, the end of the Bretton Woods system was predictable.
It was necessary to restore confidence in an international
economy shattered by war, but the Bretton Woods system could
not keep up with how that economy evolved. As European
economies found their footing and grew again, the value of their
currencies would naturally have to gain against the dollar. The
system, however, did not have the flexibility. It was also unable to
adapt effectively to changes in how people and institutions handled
money. This is an old story—a replay of governments trying
to use money for their own ends in the face of what the market
wants. The collapse of the gold standard and Bretton Woods
meant that markets had regained a measure of control over the
value of currencies. Governments, however, would continue to try
to direct the market.

It didn’t take long for traders to see the potential for profits in
this new world of currency trading. Even if the governments could
maintain the snake and the tunnel, it still permitted fluctuations—
and where there are fluctuations, there’s a chance for a profit. In
1971, the International Monetary Market of the Chicago
Mercantile Exchange was founded to trade foreign currency
futures. Before then, there was little chance to trade currencies
except through the banks. A new era had dawned.

This was clear little more than a decade after the collapse of
Bretton Woods. The U.S. economy was booming, but the dollar
had risen too far too fast. In 1985, the G-5, the most powerful
economies in the world—the U.S., Great Britain, France, West
Germany, and Japan—sent representatives to a secret meeting at
the Plaza Hotel in New York City. The dollar was simply too high,
crushing third-world nations under debt and closing American factories
because they could not compete with foreign competitors.

Although the meeting was supposedly secret, news of it leaked
out, and rumors soon made their way through the markets. In
response to reporters’ questions, the G-5 released a statement that
they would encourage an “appreciation of nondollar currencies.”
This became known as the “Plaza Accord.” Couched in this diplomatic
language was the hope that the dollar would decline slowly
and in an orderly manner, allowing everyone to adjust to the dollar’s
new value. But the markets are rarely orderly. Instead of the
hoped-for gentle fall, traders punished the dollar, sending it down
far faster than anyone had expected. However, the Plaza Accord
could rightly be called a success. In the two years after the agreement,
the dollar fell more than 30 percent. The U.S. trade deficit
narrowed, and the countries met again, this time in Paris, to sign
another agreement—the Louvre Accord. This time, the nations
agreed to halt the decline of the dollar.

The Rise of the Euro
Although the U.S. dollar has been battered or has fallen in value, its
role as the world’s reserve currency—the anchor of global commerce—
has never been challenged. Until now. The story begins
after World War II, when the European nations decided to ensure
peace by knitting themselves together.

In 1957, the European Economic Community was established in a
landmark treaty signed in Rome. Six countries—France, West Germany,
Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg—signed the
Treaty of Rome. It formed the bedrock of the European Community
and was the true beginning of the European Union and the euro.

Several other treaties followed, each one pulling Europe closer
together. The Maastricty Treaty, signed in the Dutch city on
February 7, 1992, amended the Treaty of Rome and established the
European Union, led to the creation of the euro, and established a
more cohesive whole that included initiatives on foreign policy and
security. The treaty, which called for bold steps to a closer union,
was by no means a certain thing. Only 51% of France voted in
favor, and Denmark rejected the first version.

Today, however, the euro is circulating in dozens of countries
and is used by hundreds of millions of people. If the U.S. dollar is
ever unseated as the world’s reserve currency, it will be the euro
that does it.
Read Complete : Trends That Rocked the Forex World

FOREX OR FUTURES: WHICH IS RIGHT FOR YOU?

The Foreign Exchange (FX) is one of the fastest-growing investment arenas
today. Large institutional investors and hedge funds are big players in the
forex market; and in the past three years, the Foreign Exchange market had
an estimated 50 percent increase in volume. Some had credited this increase
to the large activity created by the online currency trading for the retail
investor. The forex market is an over-the-counter market, which means
that there is no main exchange or clearinghouse. This is contrary to the futures
markets which offer futures trading in “open outcry” and electronic
access; which is transparent pricing through a trading platform. This en-

ables one to see the bids/asks and size, otherwise known as the “depth of
market” (dome).

In this book, we will be looking at the different aspects of trading the
currency markets, including the advantages and disadvantages of trading
the forex market. In addition, you will learn how to use other resources to
make better decisions on when to enter or exit your forex positions. Trading
the forex offers leverage, leverage that the individual controls. Through
the use of margin, an individual investor has the choice to increase or decrease
leverage through various means. Most currency firms offer 100 times
leverage on a regular size account; compare this leverage to the leverage offered
to the average equity investor, and you can see why many traders are
more attracted to trading the forex. As mentioned previously, leverage in
the forex market can also be customized to the individual trader, which
means that a trader can choose to lower or eliminate leverage while trading
foreign currencies.


FOREX VERSUS FUTURES MARKET
The futures market through the International Monetary Market (IMM) of
the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has many benefits as well. Founded in
1898, CME is the leader in the FX futures arena, accounting for 96 percent
of all currency futures contracts traded on a worldwide basis. The Chicago
Mercantile Exchange pioneered this segment by offering the world’s first financial
futures contracts on seven foreign currencies in May 1972. Since
that time, it has continued to expand its reach in FX by introducing new
products, expanding its customer base and leveraging the market leading
technology found in CME Globex®, its proprietary electronic trading platform.

The exchange handles over a billion contracts valued at more than
$638 trillion on an annual basis. It is a public company; and as of August 18,
2006, the stock (CME) was trading at 461.35. Amazing, considering that
when this stock was first released in its initial public offering (IPO) in December
2002, it was trading at under 40 per share! The history of the exchange
and the innovator of the IMM, Leo Melamed, who brought foreign
currency trading to life, is legendary. It has allowed investors, large and
small, to trade foreign currencies exclusively for nearly 25 years before the
explosive growth of spot forex was available. As with any product, there
are strengths and weaknesses. I wish to share with you the facts so you can
determine which investment vehicle suits your taste and trading style.

First, you should know the symbols for the individual futures currencies
as quoted against the U.S. dollar. There are just minor differences between
spot forex and futures symbols.

Note that futures trade in quarterly cycles; and to differentiate between
the various contract months, futures have universal symbols for each of the
different contract months. December is “Z,” March is “H,” June is “M,” and
September is “U.” Here is what you would use with a charting or quote ven-

dor to get a futures contract quote on a June 2007 euro currency—ECM7.

On some quote and charting services, the current year or the next contract
month going forward would be assumed and understood. The quotes symbols
for the different expiration months and various contract sizes of the futures
markets are confusing, but you can quickly learn these variables.

At times, the futures arguably have tighter “spreads” between the bid
and the asking prices; plus there is no interest charge or rollover fee every
other day. In addition, the futures markets offer options for longer-term
traders. There are transactions costs that apply per round turn; but if the
brokerage commission exchange, regulatory, and transaction charges are
less than the PIP spread in forex, an active speculator would be given a better
cost advantage using the futures markets instead of the forex spot market.

For example, let’s compare a trade in forex on a contract value similar
in size to one on the futures exchange. Use the example of a euro futures
contract on the CME with a contract size of USD125,000 worth of euros,
where each tick or PIP would be 12.50 in value. If the commissions and related
fees are $10, which is the average charge by most brokerage firms,
that is your transaction cost per round turn. That is $5 to buy and $5 to sell
out of the position. Keep in mind that the contract value is 25 percent
higher than a full-size forex position, too. If a day trader in forex trading in
a 100,000 full-lot-size contract pays two PIPs on every transaction of a position,
this trader would be charged $20 per round turn transaction. The futures
arena also has other interesting features and products; one is the U.S.
Dollar Index® contract traded on the New York Board of Trade. It is computed
using a trade-weighted geometric average of six currencies. It trades
virtually around the clock; the trading hours are from 7:00 P.M. to 10:00 P.M.,
then from 3:00 A.M. to 8:05 A.M., and then from 8:05 A.M. to 3:00 P.M. Unlike
the forex, there are daily limits on the price movement, with 200 ticks above
and below the prior day’s settlement, except during the last 30 minutes of
any trading session, when no limit applies. Should the price reach the limit
and remain within 100 ticks of the limit for 15 minutes, new limits will be
established 200 ticks above and below the previous price limit. The chart in
shows a breakdown of the six currencies and their respective
weights on the average. The top four include the euro, which is the heaviest
weight with 57.6 percent; then the Japanese yen with 13.6 percent; then
the British pound with 11.9 percent; and the Canadian dollar with 9.1 percent.
The Swedish krona is only 4.2 percent and the Swiss franc 3.6 percent.
Source: FOREX OR FUTURES: WHICH IS RIGHT FOR YOU?

The History of Forex Market And Why You Should Care

The Beautiful Market
Foreign exchange today may seem too complex for the average person
to grasp. The images of the market that dominate the media—
walls of blinking computer screens, screaming traders, giant blocks
of money traded at the speed of light, defined by an intricate interplay
of events—reinforce this perception. But these images are
actually part of a façade, masking a relatively simple transaction.

At its heart, each foreign exchange is a trade—an exchange of
one monetary unit (currency) for another. Dealers and investors
may employ intricate strategies or use technical trading language

and develop rich models, but that doesn’t fundamentally alter
the act.

Understanding this helps cut through the clutter, misperceptions,
and mystery that surround this market. Very little of what is
done in foreign exchange today is vastly different from how individuals
have traded for thousands of years. The techniques and
tools have changed, but the simple exchange remains the same.

Because foreign exchange is in fact so old, it is important to
trace its roots, to explore how this market has evolved over the
millennia. Individuals—kings and emperors, traders and dealers,
common citizens and thieves—have employed all kinds of methods
to use money and markets to their advantage. Their strategies
have resulted in success and disaster. But all contain examples and
lessons that will be helpful for the modern investor to understand
this market.

Lessons of History
One of the most famous and vivid channels of foreign exchange
occurred along the fabled “Silk Road”—over which goods flowed
back and forth between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. The
road started in Xian, a city in central China, and went by various
trails west. Centuries ago, traders prodded columns of camels
loaded with rugs, silks, and bags of aromatic spices that
Europeans needed to season their dishes and delight their palates.

Through the city’s alleys and in its open market spaces, goods

were inspected, values suggested, and deals struck. Money and
objects changed hands.

This kind of trade is the barter system, which is still the norm
in many parts of the world. However, the barter system had flaws.
For one, making individual trades was cumbersome and time-consuming.
Each item had to be inspected and its worth determined
before haggling could even begin.

Two, it was inefficient. Goods didn’t always match up in value,
so bartering required an extensive number of items to make the
trade even. A bag of grain may not be exactly worth a lamb, so the
trader would have to add a bottle of wine to even things out. This
made things much more complex.

Three, the barter system could leave out vast parts of society.
What happens if the farmer wants meat but doesn’t need a pair of
shoes? The farmer trades his grain with the butcher. But the shoemaker,
who needs grain as much as the butcher, is left out.
There is a solution to the problems of the barter system, and
many cultures developed it—currency.

The Roots of Modern Currency
Forget the idea that currency is a piece of colored paper with a picture
of someone famous on it. Paper money as it now exists is a relatively
new concept, and it probably won’t survive our lifetimes. In
cultural and historical terms, currency is something that any group
mutually recognizes as valuable.

For example, the Aztecs prized cacao beans, which were used
to make a delicious chocolate drink. Part of the beans’ value
derived from the fact that they were also practical. They could be
transported relatively easily, were uniform, and made bartering simpler.
If a trade was uneven, a merchant could throw in a scoop or
two of beans.


The ancient Romans valued salt, an essential spice to liven up
dishes and replenish the body during hot Mediterranean summers.
Like the Aztec cacao beans, salt was also practical. It could
be cut into small, uniform units and was accepted everywhere.
Roman soldiers, who sweated during maneuvers under their
leather and armor, were paid in salt. The Latin word for salt, sal,
is the root of salary.

In North America, we still refer to one dollar as a buck—few
understanding that buck once referred to deerskin, which was commonly
used as an item of exchange in colonial times.

Everywhere, currency was determined by local conditions. East
Asians often used rice, Mongolians used bricks of tea, and Native
Americans in the Northeast used colored shells.

The introduction of currency marked an important advance in
a society’s economic life. Instead of simply trading items, people
could determine value through something universal. Currency
allowed exchanges to be more circular, rather than a chain of oneon-
one transactions. The shoemaker could now sell his wares to
the butcher for currency and then use that currency to buy the
grain he needed.

Value, of course, is a relative term, and cultures often found
that what they treasured did not inspire the same reverence in their
neighbors. One tribe in Alaska used dog teeth as currency, something
other tribes regarded as disgusting. The aristocrats of Yap, an
island in the South Pacific, used giant sandstone slabs so large that
they needed dozens of laborers to move them. For obvious reasons,
this currency never gained wide use.

As ancient cultures grew more sophisticated and trade grew to
unprecedented levels, they found themselves back in the same
barter system as before, with all its faults. The problem was to find
something that was recognized as valuable, even among different
cultures with different languages and beliefs.


The solution to this problem appeared in 640 BC in a civilization
on the coast of what is today Turkey. This invention would
establish the first international currency and lay the groundwork
for our modern economic system—the metal coin.

The small kingdom of Lydia had grown rich through its production
of high-quality cosmetics and perfumes, which it sold to
other lands throughout the eastern Mediterranean.

The Lydians were the first, it appears, to mint coins. Metal, of
course, had long been recognized as a valuable substance by many
cultures. Gold, with its alluring luster, its malleable quality, and the
fact that it never rotted or rusted, was held in high esteem. As early
as 2500 BC, Mesopotamian clay tablets carried inscriptions that
recorded the use of silver and gold as payments. But these payments
were usually in large quantities. Gold was too scarce and
valuable to be used in small exchanges.

This changed when the Lydians began stamping the first coins,
which were about the same size as a modern quarter but much
thicker. Several could be easily carried around in a bag. These first
coins were made from a naturally occurring mixture of gold and
silver called electrum. To make sure everyone, including illiterate
farmers, could determine the value of the coins, the Lydians
stamped them with a lion’s head.

It is difficult to overestimate the impact these coins made as
they began to circulate among the empires that ringed the
Mediterranean Sea. Uniform coins meant merchants did not have
to use scales to measure metal, a time-consuming process. A glance
could determine literally how much money was on the table. Even
in 600 BC, traders knew the importance of time and convenience.

Lydia produced more coins, with newer versions fashioned of
solid gold. Money begot money. Attracted by the standard coins,
merchants began setting up their goods in a central spot where people
could browse among different stalls for goods—dishes, beer,

olive oil, cloth. The market, not unlike the modern shopping mall,
was born.

Although the Lydian empire soon crumbled, its innovation in
using coins spread through the Mediterranean world. This was the
first international economic system as we would understand it.
It is here that we can first see the revolutionary impact that
money has had on society. Most ancient groups were small and
organized around the principle of kinship. Going outside that society,
because of fears, xenophobia, and misunderstandings, was
rare. Most transactions involved one person speaking to another.

The value of money in the form of coins, however, was recognized
between cultures. You did not need to speak the same language
or have the same cultural background. Thus, societies could
easily join and create an economy far more complex, diverse, and
large than anything seen before.

In the late fourth century BC, Alexander the Great led his
armies to victory through central Asia and into India. Alexander’s
empire was, for the first time in history, a commercial empire.
Alexander did not just demand tribute from the conquered peoples.

He yoked them into a new economic order by building cities with
open markets in their center. Merchants quickly moved in, using
the trusted Greek coins as a medium of exchange. The Greek language,
in a heavily accented, simplified form, was used by merchants
of different cultures to haggle and exchange goods.

These characteristics are not too dissimilar from the world
today, where international business is largely based on the dollar
and deals made after a discussion in pigeon English. Alexander’s
period could be called the first era of globalization. Our modern
era, with its markets and means of exchange, is not fundamentally
different.
Source: The History of Forex Market And Why You Should Care

OPTION THEORY

Delta
Delta is the change in premium per change in the underlying. Technically, the underlying is the forward outright rate, but as the option-pricing model assumes constant interest rates, this is often calculated using spot. For example, if an option has a delta of 25 and spot moved 100 basis points, then the option price gain/loss would be 25 basis points. For this reason, delta is sometimes thought of as representing the ‘spot sensitive’ amount of the option.

An option’s price sensitivity to price changes in the underlying instrument is known as its delta.

Delta can also be thought of as the estimated probability of exercise of the option. As the option-pricing model assumes an outcome profile based around the forward outright rate, an at-the-money option has a delta of 50%. It falls for out-of-the-money options and increases for in-the-money options, but the change is non-linear, in that it changes much faster when the option is close-to-the-money.

An option is said to be delta-hedged if a position has been taken in the underlying in proportion to its delta. For example, if one is short a call option on an underlying with a face value of $1 000 000 and a delta of 0.25, a long position of $250 000 in the underlying will leave one delta-neutral with no exposure to changes in the price of the underlying, but only if these are infinitesimally small.

The delta of an option is altered by changes in the price of the underlying and by its volatility, time to expiry, and interest rates. Hence, the delta hedge must be rebalanced frequently. This is known as delta-neutral hedging.

Gamma
Gamma is the rate of change in an option’s delta for a one-unit change in the underlying.

Gamma is the change in delta per change in the underlying and is important because the option model assumes that delta hedging is performed on a continuous basis. In practice, however, this is not possible as the market gaps and the net amounts requiring further hedging would be too small to make it worth while. The gapping effect that has to be dealt with in hedging an option gives the risk proportional to the gamma of the option.

An option’s gamma is at its greatest when an option is at-the-money and decreases as the price of the underlyingmoves further away from the strike price. Therefore, gamma is U-shaped and is also greater for short-term options than for long-term options.

Volatility
It is a statistical function of the movement of an exchange rate. It measures the speed of movement within an exchange rate band, rather than the width of that band.

In essence, volatility is a measure of the variability (but not the direction) of the price of the underlying instrument, essentially the chances of an option being exercised. It is defined as the annualized standard deviation of the natural log of the ratio of two successive prices.

Historical volatility is a measure of the standard deviation of the underlying instrument over a past period. Implied volatility is the volatility implied in the price of an option.

All things being equal, higher volatility will lead to higher option prices. In traditional Black–Scholes models, volatility is assumed to be constant over the life of an option. Since traders mainly trade volatility, this is clearly unrealistic. New techniques have been developed to cope with volatility’s variability. The best known are stochastic volatility, Arch and Garch.

Actual volatility is the actual volatility that occurs during the life of an option. It is the difference between the actual volatility experienced during delta hedging and the implied volatility used to price an option at the outset, which determines if a trader makes or loses money on that option.

Time Decay (Theta)
Time decay is the effect of time passing on an option’s value.
Theta is the depreciation of the time value element of the premium, that is, it measures the effect on an option’s price of a one-day decrease in the time to expiration. The more the market and strike prices diverge, the less effect theta has on an option’s price.

Obviously, if you are the holder of an option, this effect will diminish the value of the option over time, but if you are the seller (the writer) of the option, the effect will be in your favour, as the option will cost less to purchase. Theta is non-linear, meaning that its value decreases faster the closer the option is to maturity. Positive gamma is generally associated with negative theta, and vice versa.

American versus European
In circumstance where the option enables the purchase of a currency that yields a higher return than the currency that is given up in payment, these early exercise features have value, but in such cases, they are more expensive that their European-style counterparts. Examples where this is the case include currency options in which the call currency interest rate exceeds or is close to the put currency interest rate.

American-style option – an option a purchaser may exercise for early value at any time over the life of the option up to and including its expiration date.

European-style option – an option where the purchaser has the right to exercise only at expiration.

Hence, there is a price difference between the two styles of option, but only sometimes. The difference in price occurs because there is a difference in the interest rates that each currency attracts. With American options, the intrinsic value is priced against the spot or the forward outright price, whichever is the most advantageous. This is because the American option can be exercised for spot value at any time during its life. If the call currency (right to buy) of the option has a higher interest rate than the put currency (right to sell), there will be an advantage in calculating the intrinsic value against spot rather than against the forward outright rate.

Therefore, the main risk of the writer of the American option is that at some point in time, if the option is so far in-the-money that there is negligible time value remaining, the holder may exercise early. This would mean that the writer would incur the differential interest cost of borrowing the higher interest rate currency and lending the lower interest rate currency. If this happens, the option is said to be at logical exercise.

As the American-style option is more flexible, shouldn’t it always be more expensive?

Actually, the American option is not really more flexible than the European option. True, it can be exercised early and therefore the intrinsic value can be realized immediately, but unless the option is at logical exercise, the holder would be better to sell the option back and receive the premium. (Remember, the premium represents the intrinsic value of an option plus time value.) This is true for both American and European options and, in both cases, if the option is not at logical exercise, and the aim is to realize maximum profit, it would be better to sell than to exercise the option.

Examples of cases when it would be better to pay extra premium and buy a more expensive American-style option are:

  1. In buying an option where the call currency (right to buy) has the higher interest rate and it is expected that the interest rate differential will widen significantly.
  2. In buying an option where the interest rates are close to each other and it is expected that the call (right to buy) interest rate will move above the put (right to sell) interest rate;
  3. In buying an out-of-the-money option with interest rates as in (1) or (2), and it is expected that the option will move significantly into the money, then the American-style option is more highly leveraged and will produce higher profits.

Source: A Foreign Exchange Primer

Foreign Exchange Options

The currency options market shares its origins with the new markets in derivative products, which have blossomed in recent years. They were developed to cope with the rise in volatility in the financial markets world wide. In the foreign exchange markets, the dramatic rise (1983–1985) and the subsequent fall (1985–1987) in the dollar caused major problems for central banks, corporate treasurers, and international investors alike. Windfall foreign exchange losses became enormous for the treasurer who failed to hedge, or who hedged too soon, or who borrowed money in the wrong currency. The investors in the international bond market soon discovered that the risk on their bond positions could appear insignificant relative to their currency exposure. Therefore, currency options were developed, not as another interesting off-balance-sheet trading vehicle but as an alternative risk management tool to the spot and forward foreign exchange markets. They are a product of currency market volatility and owe their existence to the demands of foreign exchange users for alternative hedging and exposure management techniques.

DEFINITIONS
A foreign exchange option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a certain currency against another, at a certain rate and at/by a certain date in the future.

The most important factor of an option, in comparison to a foreign exchange transaction, is that the buyer has the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a specified quantity of a currency at a specified rate on or before a specified date. For this right, the buyer pays a premium to the seller or writer of the currency option, usually at the outset. For currency options, the premium is often expressed as a percentage of the notional amount covered. The essential characteristics of a currency option for its owner are those of risk limitation and unlimited profit potential.

It is similar to an insurance policy. Instead of an individual paying a premium and insuring a house against fire risk, a company pays a premium to insure itself against adverse foreign exchange risk movements. This premium is the buyer’s maximum cost.

The terms used in the options market can be confusing, but the principle terms or jargon
used can be summarized as follows.
  • The option buyer is called the buyer and the option seller the writer.
  • A call gives the buyer the right to buy a specific quantity of a currency at an agreed rate over a given period.
  • A put gives the buyer the right to sell a specific quantity of a currency at an agreed rate over a given period.
  • The premium is the price paid for the option. With a currency option this can be expressed 
  • in different ways and is usually paid with spot value from the initial deal date.
  • The principle amount is the amount of currency which the buyer can buy or sell.  
  • Exercise is the process by which the option is converted into an underlying foreign exchange contract. 
  • The strike price or exercise rate is the exchange rate at which the option may be exercised. 
  • Expiry date is the final date on which the option may be exercised. 
  • A European style option can be exercised at any time but the funds will be transferred on the maturity date. In practice, most European style options are not exercised until the expiry date. 
  • An American style option can be exercised at any time up to and including the expiry date with the funds being transferred with spot value from exercise.
It is important to note that, due to the nature of foreign exchange, all currency options are a put on one currency and a call on another. For example, a dollar call/Swiss franc put gives the buyer the right to buy dollars and the right to sell Swiss francs.

How Foreign Exchange Turnover Has Grown

In 1998, the Federal Reserve’s most recently published survey of reporting dealers in
the United States estimated that foreign exchange turnover in the U.S. market was
$351 billion a day, after adjustments for double counting. That total is an increase of

43% above the estimated turnover in 1995 and more than 60 times the turnover in 1977,
the first year for which roughly comparable survey data are available.


In some ways, this estimate understates the growth and the present size of the U.S. foreign
exchange market. The $351 billion estimated daily turnover covered only the three traditional
instruments in the “over-the-counter” (OTC) market—spot, outright forwards, and foreign
exchange (FX) swaps; it did not include over-thecounter currency options and currency swaps
traded in the OTC market, which totaled about $32 billion a day in notional value (or face value)
in 1998. Nor did it include the two products traded, not “over-the-counter,” but in organized
exchanges— currency futures and exchange-traded currency options, for which the notional value of
the turnover was perhaps $10 billion per day.

The global foreign exchange market also has shown phenomenal growth. In 1998, in a survey
under the auspices of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), global turnover of reporting
dealers was estimated at about $1.49 trillion per day for the traditional products, plus an

additional $97 billion for over-the-counter currency options and currency swaps, and a
further $12 billion for currency instruments traded on the organized exchanges. In the
traditional products, global foreign exchange turnover, measured in current exchange rates,
increased by more than 80 percent between 1992 and 1998.

The expansion in foreign exchange turnover, in the United States and globally, reflects the
continuing growth of international trade and the prodigious expansion in global finance
and investment during recent years. With respect to trade, the dollar value of United
States international transactions in goods and services—the sum of exports and imports—
tripled between 1980 and 1995 to around 15 times its 1970 level. International trade in the global
economy also has expanded at a rapid pace.World merchandise trade is now more than 2½ times its
1980 level.


But international trade cannot account for the huge increase in the U.S. foreign exchange
turnover over the past twenty-five years. The enormous expansion of international capital
transactions, both here and abroad, has been a dominant force. U.S. international capital inflows,
including sales of U.S. bonds and equities to foreigners, acquisition of U.S. factories

by foreigners, and bank deposit inflows, have averaged more than $180 billion per year since the
mid-80s.

Large and persistent external trade and payments deficits in the United States and

corresponding surpluses abroad have contributed to the growth in financing. Through much of the
period since 1983, the United States has recorded trade deficits in the range of $100-$200 billion per
year, while Japan and, to a lesser extent, Germany have registered substantial trade surpluses. In
contrast, all three countries experienced only modest trade deficits or surpluses through the
1960s and early 1970s.

The internationalization of financial activity has increased rapidly.Cross-border bank claims
are now nearly five times the level of 15 years ago; as a percentage of the combined GDP of
the OECD countries, these claims have risen from about 25 percent in 1980 to about 42

percent in 1995.During that same period, crossborder securities transactions in the three
largest economies—United States, Japan, and Germany—expanded from less than 10 percent
of GDP to around 70 percent of GDP in Japan and to well above 100 percent of GDP in
Germany and the United States.

Annual issuance of international bonds has more than quadrupled during the past ten years.
Between 1988 and 1993, securities settlements through Euroclear and Cedel—the
two main Euro market clearing houses increased six-fold.
All of this provided fertile ground for growth in foreign exchange trading.
Read More : How Foreign Exchange Turnover Has Grown

Why We Need Foreign Exchange

Almost every nation has its own national currency or monetary unit—its dollar, its peso, its rupee—used for making and receiving payments within its own borders. But foreign currencies are usually needed for payments across national borders. Thus, in any nation whose residents conduct business abroad or engage in financial transactions with persons in other countries, there must be a mechanism for providing access to foreign currencies, so that payments can be made in a form acceptable to foreigners. In other words, there is need for “foreign exchange” transactions—exchanges of one currency for another.

WHAT “FOREIGN EXCHANGE” MEANS

“Foreign exchange” refers to money denominated in the currency of another nation or group of nations. Any person who exchanges money denominated in his own nation’s currency for money denominated in another nation’s currency acquires foreign exchange.

That holds true whether the amount of the transaction is equal to a few dollars or to billions of dollars; whether the person involved is a tourist cashing a traveler’s check in a restaurant abroad or an investor exchanging hundreds of millions of dollars for the acquisition of a foreign company; and whether the form of money being acquired is foreign currency notes, foreign currency denominated bank deposits, or other shortterm claims denominated in foreign currency.

A foreign exchange transaction is still a shift of funds, or short-term financial claims, from one country and currency to another. Thus, within the United States, any money denominated in any currency other than the U.S. dollar is, broadly speaking, “foreign exchange.”

Foreign exchange can be cash, funds available on credit cards and debit cards, traveler’s checks, bank deposits, or other short-term claims. It is still “foreign exchange” if it is a short-term negotiable financial claim denominated in a currency other than the U.S. dollar.

But, in the foreign exchange market described in this article—the international network of major foreign exchange dealers engaged in high-volume trading around the world—foreign exchange transactions almost always take the form of an exchange of bank deposits of different national currency denominations. If one bank agrees to sell dollars for Deutsche marks to another bank, there will be an exchange between the two parties of a dollar bank deposit for a DEM bank deposit. In this article, “foreign exchange” means a bank balance denominated in a foreign (non-U.S. dollar) currency.

ROLE OF THE EXCHANGE RATE

The exchange rate is a price—the number of units of one nation’s currency that must be surrendered in order to acquire one unit of another nation’s currency. There are scores of “exchange rates” for the U.S. dollar. In the spot market, there is an exchange rate for every other national currency traded in that market, as well as for various composite currencies or constructed monetary units such as the International Monetary Fund’s “SDR,” the European Monetary Union’s “ECU,” and beginning in 1999, the “euro.” There are also various “trade-weighted” or “effective” rates designed to show a currency’s movements against an average of various other currencies.

Quite apart from the spot rates, there are additional exchange rates for other delivery dates, in the forward markets. Accordingly, although we talk about the dollar exchange rate in the market, and it is useful to do so, there is no single, or unique dollar exchange rate in the market, just as there is no unique dollar interest rate in the market.

A market price is determined by the interaction of buyers and sellers in that market, and a market exchange rate between two currencies is determined by the interaction of the official and private participants in the foreign exchange rate market. For a currency with an exchange rate that is fixed, or set by the monetary authorities, the central bank or another official body is a key participant in the market, standing ready to buy or sell the currency as necessary to maintain the authorized pegged rate or range.But in the United States, where the authorities do not intervene in the foreign exchange market on a continuous basis to influence the exchange rate, market participation is made up of individuals, nonfinancial firms, banks, official bodies, and other private institutions from all over the world that are buying and selling dollars at that particular time.

The participants in the foreign exchange market are thus a heterogeneous group. Some of the buyers and sellers may be involved in the “goods” market, conducting international transactions for the purchase or sale of merchandise. Some may be engaged in “direct investment” in plant and equipment, or in “portfolio investment,” dealing across borders in stocks and bonds and other financial assets, while others may be in the “money market,” trading short-term debt instruments internationally. The various investors, hedgers, and speculators may be focused on any time period, from a few minutes to several years. But, whether official or private, and whether their motive be investing, hedging, speculating, arbitraging, paying for imports, or seeking to influence the rate, they are all part of the aggregate demand for and supply of the currencies involved, and they all play a role in determining the market exchange rate at that instant.

Given the diverse views, interests, and time frames of the participants, predicting the future course of exchange rates is a particularly complex and uncertain business. At the same time, since the exchange rate influences such a vast array of participants and business decisions, it is a pervasive and singularly important price in an open economy, influencing consumer prices, investment decisions, interest rates, economic growth, the location of industry, and much else. The role of the foreign exchange market in the determination of that price is critically important.
Read More : Why We Need Foreign Exchange

USERS OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE OPTIONS

As Figure 14.3 shows, there is one very important factor to remember regarding currency options: for the buyer of an option, the maximum risk is limited to the premium paid, but for the option seller, the maximum profit is limited to the premium received and the seller is potentially exposed to unlimited losses. Additionally, because of the credit risk involved when writing options, there are typically fewer restrictions on those wishing to buy options than on those wishing to sell.

Writing options on exchanges tends to be simpler as the credit risks are controlled by a margin system. The margin is a small percentage of the value of the contract, which must be deposited to cover losses up to a certain limit. The margin is usually adjusted on each trading day and, on occasions, more frequently to take account of market movements. However, the greater flexibility available in the OTC market allows some of the credit difficulties to be pursued and overcome. Participants in the foreign exchange currency options market include:
  • Banks – who provide a service for their clients, to manage their own foreign exchange risk, and in order to take a directional and/or volatility view.
  • Supranationals and sovereigns – all issuers of debt in foreign currencies will have exchange rate exposure, which must be managed.
  • Multinational companies – multinationals and their subsidiaries will have funds and crossborder transactions in several currencies and so will be subject to foreign exchange risk.
  • Importers and exporters – any company that imports or exports goods to a foreign country will have exposure to fluctuations in exchange rates.
  • Investors in foreign currency securities – investors in foreign securities will be exposed to fluctuations in the currency in which the securities are denominated.
  • High net worth individuals – such individuals may use exchange-traded currency options for speculation on exchange rates because of the gearing they offer.
For example, a British-based company exports consumer goods to several countries. Currently, the company has contracted to supply 10 million dollarsworth of goods to America and expects to receive payment in three months’ time, in dollars. The company believes that the dollar will appreciate against sterling over the next three months.

There are several alternative strategies. The company can:
(1) leave the future cash flow unhedged in the belief that the exchange rate will move in their favour;
(2) enter into a forward contract to sell dollars and buy sterling in three months’ time;
(3) purchase a 3-month sterling call option (the right to buy sterling and sell dollars).

Possible results:

  1. If the exchange rate does move in the company’s favour, then the company will receive a windfall profit on its long dollar position. However, this strategy is very dangerous because if the exchange rate moves contrary to the company’s expectations, its sterling profits will be reduced and could become a loss as its costs are fixed in sterling.
  2. If the company enters into a forward contract, it is locking in an exchange rate for the supply deal. This gives the company protection against a dollar depreciation but does not allow it to take any profit from a dollar appreciation, which is contrary to its expectations for the exchange rate.
  3. If the company purchases a sterling call option, this will require the company to pay out a premium upfront. However, it will guarantee the company a minimum exchange rate for the supply contract. It allows the company to indulge its expectations that the dollar will appreciate from current levels as, should this expected appreciation occur, the company is free to abandon the option and transact in the market at the more favourable exchange rate.
If the company decides to purchase a currency option, it could buy a 3-month option, a European-style sterling call/dollar put option, with a strike price of £/$1.75 (that is, the right to buy sterling and sell dollars at a rate of £/$1.75). Assume the cost of the option is 1.74% of the sterling amount, i.e. £99 428.57 ($10 000 000 divided by 1.75 equals £5 714 285.71 × 1.74%).

THE TRULY MODERN MARKET

I love Asia: it smells of raw capitalism. Especially at night. Several
years ago, I was watching Hong Kong in the evening as the city
became a brilliant silhouette of pure commerce against the dark
Communist backdrop of mainland China. The rickshaw drivers,
rivers of neon lights, open-air markets, and steel high-rises always
make me think of foreign exchange, the fundamental transaction of
capitalism and the building block of modern globalization.

I couldn’t speak Chinese, but as I approached a currency
exchange booth on the Kowloon side of Hong Kong, I silently prepared
to engage in an ancient conversation. I pulled out $100 in 20s,
and the young man behind the counter smiled and said in broken

English, “I love LA, Hollywood. All right.” He held his smile artificially
long. “No,” I said, “New York.” “Ah,” he replied, “Statue of
Liberty. All right.” And he smiled again. I was sure he could deliver
a greeting in every language listed on the board behind him.
The electric board was black with red lights. It displayed the
currency prices, a small flag for those who couldn’t read the currencies,
and a two-sided quote with a buy and sell price. The young
man pulled out a beat-up calculator with masking tape holding
down the screen and started to punch numbers. Exchange rate, buy
side, times the number of U.S. dollars, 100, minus broker fee,
equals 778 Hong Kong dollars. He looked up and I nodded in
agreement. He unrolled a wad of colorful Hong Kong bills,
counted them out carefully, and slid them over to me.

At that moment, it was hard to understand that in this little
booth, lit by bad fluorescent lights, next to a vendor selling Peking
duck and knock-off Chanel bags, I had access to the world’s
largest, most liquid, and most influential financial market—Forex.

A Market for the 21st Century
Since then, the Forex market has only grown more accessible,
increased in size, and captured the public’s attention. Spurred by
investments in technology and communication over the past decade,
the world is trading goods and services at ever-faster speeds, a
process broadly called globalization. With the economic world
drawing together faster, the Forex market has become its most critical
market. And for the new breed of global trading and investors,
the opportunities in Forex are just beginning.


You can see globalization and trading today in cities around the
world. Every morning at Grand Central Station in midtown
Manhattan, tourists wait in line outside a well-lit and welldesigned
Travelers Money Exchange to trade their currency for
dollars. With dollars in their pockets, they can dine out in Little
India, buy cheap electronics in Chinatown, take a ride on the
Staten Island Ferry, or do anything else money can buy.

This money fills up local cash registers, but it doesn’t stay there
for long. It is spent again. Perhaps it is used to buy some of the
goods that are carried by ships into America’s harbors. With their
decks stacked impossibly high with containers, these ships steam
past the Statue of Liberty and slide into docks bristling with giant
cranes. The containers are whisked off the decks and hitched to
tractor-trailers, which pull out onto the New Jersey Turnpike in an
endless stream, carrying goods into the nation.


The goods are bought and the money flows back, much of it
into New York again. Foreign corporations now look to trade the
dollars they’ve made back into their native currencies. Far above
the booths and lines of tourists, floors filled with brokers, traders,
bankers, and trading terminals carry out these transactions.

Go to any major city in the world—New York, London, Tokyo,
Bombay, Rio de Janeiro—and the same process is being carried out.
This time, it may be British pounds or Japanese yen buying
American goods and services, or foreign investors buying local
stock or government securities. Billions of dollars flow back and
forth across national borders every hour—sometimes passed by
hand or voice, sometimes at the click of a button. At the end of
each day, an average of $1.5 trillion has been traded, dwarfing the
daily volume of the New York Stock Exchange, the NASDAQ, the
FTSE, the DAX, and the Tokyo Nikkei combined.

It should come as little surprise that the volume is so high.
Currencies bind the world together, form the bedrock of globalization,
and are the means of exchange of world trade and investment.
But it isn’t just the tourists and traders who participate in foreign
exchange every day. So, most likely, do you. Take a typical day
in the life of a Kansas resident. In the morning, he dresses in underwear
made in China, a suit manufactured in Turkey, and a pair of
shoes assembled in Italy. He brews a cup of coffee made of beans
from Colombia. He drives a car with a transmission made in Japan
and a steel frame from Canada. The gas powering the engine is
refined from Saudi Arabian oil. At work, he turns on a computer
fashioned with components made in Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan,
and China. The software is American.

All these goods were bought, and a portion of each purchase
must be translated back into the currency of the country of origin.
Although the Kansan may not be aware of it, his dollars are sent on
a journey in which they are traded for yen, euros, baht, won, real,

shekels, and yuan. We take this for granted, but without the currency
market, our Kansan would be unable to get through the day
unless his paychecks were issued in several currencies. Imagine trying
to buy a hamburger in Kansas with yen! In short, foreign
exchange has become woven into the fabric of our daily lives. It is
impossible to be a resident of the modern world and avoid it.

After all, in these vast flows of money across borders lies an
enormous investing opportunity. This market is old, but for the
first time in history, due to a revolution in communication, technology,
and credit, this market is available to small investors.

It’s no coincidence that we are now seeing an enormous rise in
Forex trading by both speculators and users. Forex is not a fad
asset class pushed by analysts or created by an exchange to increase
dwindling volume. It reflects fundamental market needs in today’s
environment.

A progressive market must meet two criteria today, and
Forex has always met both. The market must be global, and it
cannot be controlled by a single entity. The Forex market is truly
global. It does not have a center and does not obey the rules of
any one nation.

That applies especially to time. As different parts of the world
move from darkness to light, trading activity comes to life. Currency
is bought and sold in Tokyo while New York slumbers. When night
descends on Tokyo, London offices are opening and starting to trade.

By the time London approaches mid-afternoon, New Yorkers are
arriving at their desks, ready to make money. The markets reflect
these rhythms, with trading volume rising and falling depending on
when workers are entering work or leaving to go home.

With this ability to trade the exact same currency at any time, the
Forex can be called a 24-hour market that is open from late Sunday
Eastern Standard Time, when the Forex week starts with the Monday
morning open in Wellington, New Zealand, then on to Sydney

Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Moscow, Frankfurt, London, and
then finishing the week on Friday at five o’clock in New York.


The Forex market also doesn’t obey any one holiday schedule.
New York banks don’t close to celebrate May Day, but
London does. London is open when Americans are sitting down
to turkey dinners on Thanksgiving. Tokyo offices are filled on
Christmas Day, when most Americans and Brits are at home
unwrapping presents.

However, this vast market is united by two characteristics—
ancient capitalism and new technology. At its core, the market is
nothing new. The Forex market has roots that stretch back thousands
of years, where cultures rubbed shoulders and merchants
swapped goods at borders and in back alleys of ancient cities. This
market grew out of itself—out of the human need to trade for
goods that one society had but the other didn’t. It grew out of the
desire to make a profit.


For most of history, access was controlled by gatekeepers—merchants,
bankers, industrialists—who wanted the profits for themselves.
In the past 10 years, however, that has changed. Technology
allows anyone with an Internet connection—via a terminal or cell
phone—to not only trade Forex but also to have access to the information
that gives traders a more level playing field.
Source: Forex Revolution: An Insider's Guide to the Real World of Foreign Exchange Trading