the United States estimated that foreign exchange turnover in the U.S. market was
$351 billion a day, after adjustments for double counting. That total is an increase of
43% above the estimated turnover in 1995 and more than 60 times the turnover in 1977,
the first year for which roughly comparable survey data are available.
In some ways, this estimate understates the growth and the present size of the U.S. foreign
exchange market. The $351 billion estimated daily turnover covered only the three traditional
instruments in the “over-the-counter” (OTC) market—spot, outright forwards, and foreign
exchange (FX) swaps; it did not include over-thecounter currency options and currency swaps
traded in the OTC market, which totaled about $32 billion a day in notional value (or face value)
in 1998. Nor did it include the two products traded, not “over-the-counter,” but in organized
exchanges— currency futures and exchange-traded currency options, for which the notional value of
the turnover was perhaps $10 billion per day.
The global foreign exchange market also has shown phenomenal growth. In 1998, in a survey
under the auspices of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), global turnover of reporting
dealers was estimated at about $1.49 trillion per day for the traditional products, plus an
additional $97 billion for over-the-counter currency options and currency swaps, and a
further $12 billion for currency instruments traded on the organized exchanges. In the
traditional products, global foreign exchange turnover, measured in current exchange rates,
increased by more than 80 percent between 1992 and 1998.
The expansion in foreign exchange turnover, in the United States and globally, reflects the
continuing growth of international trade and the prodigious expansion in global finance
and investment during recent years. With respect to trade, the dollar value of United
States international transactions in goods and services—the sum of exports and imports—
tripled between 1980 and 1995 to around 15 times its 1970 level. International trade in the global
economy also has expanded at a rapid pace.World merchandise trade is now more than 2½ times its
1980 level.
But international trade cannot account for the huge increase in the U.S. foreign exchange
turnover over the past twenty-five years. The enormous expansion of international capital
transactions, both here and abroad, has been a dominant force. U.S. international capital inflows,
including sales of U.S. bonds and equities to foreigners, acquisition of U.S. factories
by foreigners, and bank deposit inflows, have averaged more than $180 billion per year since the
mid-80s.
Large and persistent external trade and payments deficits in the United States and
corresponding surpluses abroad have contributed to the growth in financing. Through much of the
period since 1983, the United States has recorded trade deficits in the range of $100-$200 billion per
year, while Japan and, to a lesser extent, Germany have registered substantial trade surpluses. In
contrast, all three countries experienced only modest trade deficits or surpluses through the
1960s and early 1970s.
The internationalization of financial activity has increased rapidly.Cross-border bank claims
are now nearly five times the level of 15 years ago; as a percentage of the combined GDP of
the OECD countries, these claims have risen from about 25 percent in 1980 to about 42
percent in 1995.During that same period, crossborder securities transactions in the three
largest economies—United States, Japan, and Germany—expanded from less than 10 percent
of GDP to around 70 percent of GDP in Japan and to well above 100 percent of GDP in
Germany and the United States.
Annual issuance of international bonds has more than quadrupled during the past ten years.
Between 1988 and 1993, securities settlements through Euroclear and Cedel—the
two main Euro market clearing houses increased six-fold.
All of this provided fertile ground for growth in foreign exchange trading.
Read More : How Foreign Exchange Turnover Has Grown
